100 days of Ukraine war: How India diplomatically navigated the crisis

While displaying the ability to withstand the growing chorus from the West for a more forceful stand against Russia, it has also forced key partners to focus on fostering collaboration in the Indo-Pacific.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has left New Delhi coping with one of its most significant foreign policy crises in decades, manoeuvring deftly to overcome pressure from the West while retaining a strategic relationship with Moscow.

India’s position since then has been based on an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to the path of diplomacy and dialogue.  (Reuters)

The Indian government has displayed a tenacious ability to withstand the growing chorus from Western capitals for a more forceful stand against Russia’s aggression as the war in Ukraine completes 100 days. And, at the same time, it has forced key partners to focus on fostering collaboration in a range of areas in the Indo-Pacific that is aimed at countering China, which continues to be India’s primary security concern.

The current situation is a very different from the developments that followed the Donald Trump administration’s call on India in 2018 to take oil imports from Iran to zero or face sanctions. Within months, India had completely stopped crude purchases from Iran, which was among the country’s top three energy suppliers despite the move having a huge economic impact.

However, India is far more invested in the relationship with Russia and this, combined with fears that the current isolation of Moscow will only serve to drive it closer to Beijing, have shaped New Delhi’s response to the Ukraine crisis. The current global scenario too is markedly different from the situation four years ago, with most economies grappling with the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic and the spike in energy prices because of the Ukraine war.

Following the Russian invasion on February 24, India’s main focus was on the safe return of more than 20,000 nationals, most of them students, from Ukraine. The government mounted a massive operation, coordinating with Ukraine’s neighbours Romania, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, to get the Indians to border crossings in safe zones before flying them back to the country in special flights. One Indian student died in a Russian attack in Kharkiv.

At the same time, India faced considerable criticism, especially from the United States (US) and European partners, for abstaining on all resolutions and votes on the Ukraine issue at various United Nations bodies, including the Security Council, and for not publicly criticising Putin’s actions.

There was also growing pressure from Washington not to circumvent sanctions on Russia by developing an alternative payment mechanism or to accelerate imports of energy and other commodities offered by Russia at discounted prices. US deputy national secretary Daleep Singh, during a visit to New Delhi a little more than a month after the beginning of the Ukraine war, even warned that there would be “consequences” if India sought to circumvent or backfill the sanctions.

Public statements by the Indian leadership made it clear that India would not give in to such pressure, with external affairs minister S Jaishankar chiding European powers for calling on India to reduce energy purchases from Russia even as key European players created carve-outs in the sanctions regime to maintain Russian gas purchases. Jaishankar also highlighted the fallout of the chaotic withdrawal of Western powers from Afghanistan last year and their silence on challenges to the rules-based order in Asia.

Speaking last month at the Raisina Dialogue, the foreign ministry’s flagship conference on geopolitics, Jaishankar had said: “When the rules-based order was under challenge in Asia, the advice we got from Europe is do more trade. At least we’re not giving you that advice...In terms of Afghanistan, please show me which part of the rules-based order justified what the world did there.”

Since the war in Ukraine began on February 24, state-run and private refiners in India, the world’s third largest oil importer, have bought more than 40 million barrels of Russian crude – 20% more than total purchases from Russia in 2021, according to Bloomberg. Indian officials have noted though that there is no government-to-government agreement for energy purchases and Russia is not among the country’s top 10 sources for oil, and that the purchases have been driven by market considerations.

But that is not to say that India’s position has not evolved as the war progressed and numerous allegations emerged of human rights violations, especially the killing of civilians in the Ukrainian town of Bucha.

In the days immediately after the invasion, India’s position at the UN had referred to ensuring the “legitimate security interests of all countries”, which was perceived as a nod towards Russia’s concerns related to NATO and Ukraine.

Within days, however, the language of the statements became more critical without actually naming Russia. While calling for dialogue to settle differences, the Indian side emphasised the need to respect the UN Charter, international law and sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states. The abstentions in votes at UN bodies kept the overall relationship with Russia going at the same time.

India’s position since then has been based on an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to the path of diplomacy and dialogue. It also condemned the killings of civilians in Bucha and demanded an independent probe into the matter.

At a virtual meeting with US President Joe Biden on April 12, Prime Minister Narendra Modi summed up India’s position on the Ukraine crisis by saying that the situation remains “very worrisome”, and that he had spoken to the presidents of Ukraine and Russia on phone several times to appeal for peace and to suggest that Putin “have direct talks with the president of Ukraine”.

After a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on May 2, Modi cautioned that “there will be no winning party in this war, everyone will suffer”. He added, “That is why we are in favour of peace. Oil prices are skyrocketing due to the turmoil triggered by the Ukraine conflict, there is also shortage of food grains and fertilisers in the world...India is deeply concerned by the humanitarian impact of this conflict.”

Former ambassador Vivek Katju, who has closely tracked the crisis in Europe, said a lot would now depend on how the war in Ukraine progresses. “Adhering to Indian diplomatic traditions, the Modi government has handled the fallout of the Russian invasion of Ukraine pragmatically and deftly. The scope for space for future manoeuvre will depend on developments in Europe, including on the Ukrainian battlefield, in the months ahead,” he said.